Oil falls on rising USA output, global demand concern

16 Ноября, 2017, 02:19 | Author: Lester Mason
  • By David Gaffen

USA crude and gasoline stocks increased while distillate inventories fell, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

The West Texas Intermediate for December delivery was down 0.37 US dollar to settle at 55.33 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while Brent crude for January delivery lost 0.34 dollar to close at 61.87 dollars a barrel on the London ICE Futures Exchange.

Crude prices came under pressure after the EIA revealed a somewhat downbeat outlook for oil demand in its monthly report, forecasting weakness in global demand growth, while warning that global oil markets will be oversupplied through the second quarter of 2018.

The benchmarks have dipped from earlier in the month, when a surfeit of buying from funds, bolstered by expected strength in demand and momentum from the ongoing rally, boosted prices to two-year highs.

Ahead of data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry trade group, analysts in a Reuters poll forecast USA crude stocks declined by 2.2 million barrels last week.

As for the oil price, the IEA has cut its forecast by 18 percent to $83 per barrel by 2025, and by 11 percent to $111 per barrel by 2040, the agency's World Energy Outlook 2017 showed on Tuesday.

The US benchmark slipped 0.7 per cent yesterday as Russian Federation believes it's too early to announce a possible extension at Opec's meeting at the end of the month, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.

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"The oil market faces a hard challenge in 1Q18 with supply expected to exceed demand by 600,000 bpd followed by another, smaller, surplus of 200,000 bpd in 2Q18", the agency said.

"This is why, absent any geopolitical premium, we may not have seen a "new normal" for oil prices", the IEA said. Also, supplies are likely to exceed that level, particularly as USA production continues to rise.

The IEA report countered the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), which just a day earlier said 2018 would see a strong rise in oil demand.

USA crude oil production C-OUT-T-EIA has jumped more than 14 percent since mid-2016 to 9.65 million bpd and is expected to grow further.

"The United States is set to become the undisputed global oil and gas leader; renewable are being deployed rapidly thanks to falling costs; the share of electricity in the energy mix is growing; and China's new economic strategy takes it on a cleaner growth mode, with implications for global energy markets", said the report.

"Even after some modest reductions to growth, non-OPEC production will follow this year's 700,000-bpd growth with 1.4 million bpd of additional production in 2018 and next year's demand growth will struggle to match this", the IEA said.

OPEC meets on November 30 and is expected to agree an extension to its output cuts.

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