- Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the Bahamas on Friday.
- Isaias triggered hurricane warnings in parts of Florida.
- The first impacts could be felt in parts of Florida as early as Saturday.
- Forecasts for this system are still uncertain due to multiple factors.
- Isaias could finally impact the sizeable fields of the East Coast as far north as New England as early as next week.
Hurricane Isaiah (ees-ah-EE-ahs) is expected to strengthen as it moves into the Bahamas on Saturday and will then move near Florida this weekend, before tracing the East Coast to the far north in New England on Friday. incoming.
A hurricane warning has been issued for a portion of Florida̵7;s East Coast, from Boca Raton to the Volusia / Brevard County Line. Hurricane conditions are expected on late Saturday or Sunday.
The hurricane watch has been extended, now in force to portions of Florida from the north of the Volusia-Brevard County line to the Flagler / Volusia County Line, and to South Florida from Boca Raton. to Hallendale County. A hurricane watch is typically issued 48 hours before the first anticipated event of a tropical-force wind, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous.
(MORE: Hurricane Season Terms You Must Know)
Hurricane warnings continue in the Bahamas, including Nassau, Freeport and the Abacos Islands, where hurricane conditions are expected Saturday.
Strong winds and rain bands tie the southeastern Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos. Wind gusts above 50 mph were measured in the Turks and Caicos in late Thursday night and early Friday. Conditions are deteriorating in the central and northern Bahamas.
Heavy rain sparked a serious flash flood in various parts of Puerto Rico. Just under 4.5 inches of rain was measured in San Juan on Thursday. Multiple fallen trees, mud and flooding have been reported in southwestern Puerto Rico, according to local emergency management. River flood has been recorded by USGS gauges in several locations in Puerto Rico.
(NEWS: Fatal Isaias left widespread damage throughout the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico)
Below is a look at what we know about the forecast for some potential impacts on the US and the Caribbean.
Florida, Concerns of the United States East Coast
The road projected by the NHC below shows that this system could be found off the East Coast of Florida this weekend. Isaiah then gradually moves northeast near the East Coast. This is a subtle shift to the west compared to previous forecasts.
There are still a number of reasons for this uncertainty both in track and in its intensity.
It is too early to accurately determine the future track and intensity of this system, with respect to the continental United States and, therefore, the potential impacts including rain, wind and floods.
Here is what we are actively noticing now:
The hurricane is predicted to fight slightly unfavorable winds at high altitude – producing what meteorologists refer to as wind shear – along its tracks from the Bahamas and beyond. It is usually a nemesis of tropical cyclones.
However, hot water is plentiful near the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States, a factor that favors slow intensification.
This sum of these two competing factors has a lean towards intensification in the manner shown in the National Hurricane Center forecast.
Further north, land interaction with Florida could weaken Isaias on Sunday.
Tracking of Considerations
The forecasting track going forward relies heavily on the characteristics of the steering in the atmosphere – the height of Bermuda and the level of the highest dip in the wind flow on the the Mississippi Valley. How strong Isaiah early next week also plays a role in his right path.
There are also major uncertainties about how Isaiah moves quickly near the East Coast. Some computer model predictions are faster, some a little slower. Therefore, the timing of all this may also change.
Isaias is expected to make it to the north, then to the northeast turning this weekend at the beginning of next week. But exactly when and how much this turn occurs will greatly influence the impacts in Florida and along the East Coast. And it depends on the exact orientation and strength of those steering characteristics.
The National Weather Service will be releasing extra weather bubbles to help figure out these atmospheric steering agents in the coming days. Hurricane Hunters are also taking the environment around and north of Isaias tonight to help improve the forecast.
For now, forecast, near the east coast of Florida is expected, but it could move east or west.
Isaias is expected to arrive near South Florida early Sunday as a hurricane, and possibly central or northeast Florida Sunday afternoon. This leads to at least some rain, wind, high surf, and coastal impacts of flooding or storm surge in Florida this weekend.
An increase in a dangerous storm is also possible along the East Coast of Florida.
Here is the current forecast from the National Hurricane Center:
- Jupiter inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL: 2-4 ft
- North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL: 1-3 ft
From there it can pass near Carolinas Monday, then quickly sweep near parts of the Northeast Seaboard in both the North and New England on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Swells generated by Isaias could begin to arrive along the southeast coast of the United States as early as Saturday, leading to high surfing and the danger of currents from theft. The surf stays high all the way until Isaias passes.
Further north, here is an early look when tropical force winds are possible.
Residents along the East Coast from Florida to Maine should monitor the progress of this system closely and have their plans in place. to go, in case they are needed.
Caribbean, Bahamas Forecast
As mentioned earlier, Isaias is producing strong wind gusts and heavy rain bands over the northern and central Bahamas.
Rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is likely in parts of the Bahamas to 2 inches in portions of Cuba. They are possible flash flooding and life threatening.
Two to four inches of rain is possible from south Florida in eastern central Florida Friday night through Monday, with a maximum isolated total of 6 inches, according to the National Center for of the Hurricane.
Heavy rains could also spread in the eastern Carolinas early next week.
Conditions will gradually improve in the Central and Southern Bahamas and in the Turks and Caicos Islands through Friday as Isaias moves north.
A dangerous storm surge of up to 3 to 5 feet, above ground level, is predicted by the National Hurricane Center, in areas where winds will blow over the sea in the Bahamas.
In times of surfing and life threatening are also expected in Florida this weekend.
Check back with us on weather.com for important updates on Isaias.
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